Chapecoense vs Fluminense Prediction & Win Probability

Statistical model gives Chapecoense the primary edge (53%) based on home strength and tactical differential.

FootballPredict identifies a moderate directional lean toward Chapecoense at 53%, with a draw evaluated at 27% and Fluminense at 20%. The projected scoreline of Chapecoense 1 – 0 Fluminense captures the underlying goal expectancy for this fixture.

Performance metrics and form ratings designate Chapecoense as the primary favourites with a 53% win probability, demonstrating strong attacking efficiency averaging 1.4 goals scored per game and conceding 1.2 over recent outings. A 70-point rating advantage highlights Chapecoense's superior squad quality and baseline consistency (1505 vs 1435). Across 7 recorded H2H encounters, Chapecoense secured 4 win(s), Fluminense claimed 1 win(s), and 2 ended level (averaging 2.7 total goals). Goal expectancy analysis assigns a 48% likelihood to Over 2.5 Total Goals, with Both Teams To Score projected at 52%. Projected match outcome targets a 1 - 0 final score, as both squads have produced competitive, mixed recent displays.

Goal expectation for this fixture stands at 1 projected goals (lean toward Under 2.5). Both teams to score (BTTS) is projected as No derived from joint bivariate Poisson goal distributions across the 7x7 score matrix.

ℹ️ A 53% model estimate reflects a statistical edge across comparable historical matches, but it inherently implies a 47% likelihood of points being dropped through a draw or upset. Models evaluate underlying averages and cannot anticipate unexpected in-match events such as early dismissals, penalty decisions, or sudden injuries.