Roma vs Cagliari Prediction & Win Probability

Statistical model gives Roma the primary edge (65%) based on home strength and tactical differential.

FootballPredict's statistical model establishes Roma as a strong statistical favorite with an estimated pre-match win probability of 65%, compared with 21% for a draw and 14% for Cagliari. Based on rolling attack ratings and defensive resilience in Serie A, the engine projects a most likely final scoreline of Roma 3 – 0 Cagliari.

Performance metrics and form ratings designate Roma as the primary favourites with a 65% win probability, demonstrating strong attacking efficiency averaging 2.2 goals scored per game and conceding 1.2 over recent outings. A 89-point rating advantage highlights Roma's superior squad quality and baseline consistency (1621 vs 1532). Across 7 recorded H2H encounters, Roma secured 4 win(s), Cagliari claimed 1 win(s), and 2 ended level (averaging 2.7 total goals). Goal expectancy analysis assigns a 54% likelihood to Over 2.5 Total Goals, with Both Teams To Score projected at 55%. Projected match outcome targets a 3 - 0 final score, as Cagliari carry strong positive momentum into this clash.

Goal expectation for this fixture stands at 3 projected goals (lean toward Over 2.5). Both teams to score (BTTS) is projected as No derived from joint bivariate Poisson goal distributions across the 7x7 score matrix.

ℹ️ A 65% model estimate reflects a statistical edge across comparable historical matches, but it inherently implies a 35% likelihood of points being dropped through a draw or upset. Models evaluate underlying averages and cannot anticipate unexpected in-match events such as early dismissals, penalty decisions, or sudden injuries.